The UFC 319 main card on August 16, 2025, in Chicago features a crucial welterweight clash between two ranked contenders, Geoff Neal, the #11-ranked knockout artist from Texas, and Carlos Prates, the #12-ranked Brazilian striker riding a wave of violent finishes before his recent setback. This fight could determine who stays in the division’s top 10 conversation and who falls behind in the race toward title contention.
Geoff Neal
Geoff Neal (16–6) returns to the Octagon after recovering from the fight cancellation against Prates earlier this year at UFC 314. The heavy-handed southpaw is one of the most dangerous punchers in the division, with 10 of his wins coming by knockout. Neal rebounded from back-to-back losses with a first-round stoppage of Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 308, showing that his power remains a fight-ending weapon. Known for his sharp boxing and composed counterstriking, Neal has faced a murderer’s row of opponents, including Shavkat Rakhmonov, Vicente Luque, and Stephen Thompson.
While Neal has been tested by elite competition, durability and defense will be key against a high-volume finisher like Prates. If he can dictate range and keep the exchanges in boxing distance, his accuracy and shot selection could make the difference.
Geoff Neal – Last 5 Fights:
1. Win vs. Rafael dos Anjos – TKO (Knee Injury) (UFC 308, Oct 2024)
2. Loss vs. Ian Machado Garry – Decision (Split) (UFC 298, Feb 2024)
3. Loss vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov – Submission (RNC) (UFC 285, Mar 2023) – Fight of the Night
4. Win vs. Vicente Luque – KO (Punches) (Aug 2022) – Performance of the Night
5. Win vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio – Decision (Split) (UFC 269, Dec 2021)
Carlos Prates
Carlos Prates (21–7) made an immediate impact in the UFC with four straight knockout victories, all earning Performance of the Night honors, before falling short in a five-round striking battle against Ian Machado Garry in April. A former Muay Thai fighter, Prates brings relentless forward pressure, a devastating left hand, and a willingness to throw fight-ending knees and body shots. Sixteen of his 21 career wins have come by knockout, making him one of the most feared finishers in the welterweight division.
Despite his recent loss, Prates showed durability and a willingness to compete over 25 minutes, experience that could serve him well in a high-paced three-rounder against Neal. The key will be whether he can close the distance early and disrupt Neal’s counterpunching rhythm.
Carlos Prates – Last 5 Fights:
1. Loss vs. Ian Machado Garry – Decision (Unanimous) (Apr 2025)
2. Win vs. Neil Magny – KO (Punch) (Nov 2024) – Performance of the Night
3. Win vs. Li Jingliang – KO (Punches) (Aug 2024) – Performance of the Night
4. Win vs. Charles Radtke – KO (Knee to the Body) (Jun 2024) – Performance of the Night
5. Win vs. Trevin Giles – KO (Punch) (Feb 2024) – Performance of the Night
Fight Outlook
This matchup is a pure striker’s delight. Neal’s southpaw boxing and compact punching style contrast with Prates’ Muay Thai stance and multi-level attack. Both men carry legitimate knockout power, but Neal’s edge in counterstriking efficiency could neutralize Prates’ aggression. On the other hand, Prates’ ability to mix up targets and maintain volume could force Neal into uncomfortable exchanges.
Prediction
This fight may come down to who controls the center and lands the first big shot. Neal has proven knockout power against elite names, but Prates’ momentum, youth, and body attack could be the difference over three rounds. Expect early fireworks with both men having moments, but Prates’ pace and variety should edge him ahead on the scorecards.
Prediction:
Carlos Prates def. Geoff Neal via Decision (Unanimous)
Prates weathers Neal’s early counters, invests in body work, and keeps a high output to secure a competitive but clear win on the judges’ cards.