Alexander Hernandez and Kurt Holobaugh are set to clash in a high-stakes Lightweight bout at UFC Vegas 104. Both fighters have had their ups and downs inside the octagon, making this a crucial fight for their respective careers. Hernandez, known for his explosive striking and fast starts, will look to capitalize on his power and athleticism, while Holobaugh, a well-rounded veteran with solid grappling skills, aims to extend his recent momentum.
Hernandez’s last five fights have been a mixed bag. He is coming off a split-decision victory over Austin Hubbard at UFC 307, marking his return to the Lightweight division. Prior to that, he suffered consecutive losses, dropping a split decision to Damon Jackson and a unanimous decision to Bill Algeo. Before those setbacks, he earned a unanimous decision win against UFC veteran Jim Miller but was stopped by Billy Quarantillo via TKO in the second round at UFC 282. This inconsistent run highlights Hernandez’s struggles against durable and well-rounded opponents.
Holobaugh, on the other hand, has shown solid form in his recent outings. In his last fight, he secured a unanimous decision win over Kaynan Kruschewsky at UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba. Before that, he defeated Austin Hubbard via second-round triangle choke to win The Ultimate Fighter 31 Lightweight Tournament. However, he suffered a unanimous decision loss to Trey Ogden earlier in 2024. His last five fights also include two finishes outside the UFC: a knockout victory over Jose Luis Verdugo and a first-round TKO against Joziro Boye in XFC competition. Holobaugh’s ability to mix striking and grappling effectively has made him a dangerous opponent, especially when the fight goes into deeper rounds.
This matchup presents an interesting contrast in styles. Hernandez will likely come out aggressive, looking to pressure Holobaugh early with his fast-paced striking. However, if Holobaugh can withstand the initial onslaught, his durability and grappling prowess could play a key role as the fight progresses. Hernandez has shown vulnerabilities in longer fights, particularly against opponents who can push the pace and wear him down. Holobaugh’s ability to capitalize on mistakes and find submissions makes him a serious threat, especially if the fight goes to the ground.
The most probable outcome sees Holobaugh securing a submission victory in the later rounds, as Hernandez has previously struggled against high-level grapplers. However, if Hernandez can control the distance, avoid the ground game, and maintain his pace for three rounds, he has a path to victory via decision. Ultimately, Holobaugh’s experience, resilience, and finishing ability give him a slight edge in this contest. Expect an exciting fight where both men will have their moments, but Holobaugh’s ability to weather adversity and capitalize on openings might lead him to victory.
Prediction: Kurt Holobaugh via submission (Round 2 or 3).
