Bukauskas enters the fight with a 16-6 professional record, boasting nine knockout wins. He has shown resilience in his UFC run, securing key victories over fighters like Tyson Pedro and Zac Pauga. However, durability has been a concern, as four of his six career losses have come by knockout. Despite setbacks against powerful strikers like Vitor Petrino and Khalil Rountree, Bukauskas remains a threat with his technical kickboxing and ability to mix in grappling when needed.
Cerqueira, on the other hand, holds an 11-1 record, with an impressive 73% knockout rate. His striking has been lethal on the regional scene, where he racked up quick finishes, including a recent 51-second TKO loss to Ibo Aslan at UFC 308. Before that defeat, he had dominated lower-level competition with devastating knockouts and submissions. However, his limited experience against high-level UFC competition raises questions about how he will handle a well-rounded opponent like Bukauskas.
Heading into this fight, Bukauskas’ best path to victory lies in his technical striking and experience. If he can weather Cerqueira’s early power and drag the fight into the later rounds, his durability and composure could make the difference. Cerqueira, meanwhile, will need to start fast and find an early knockout, as his ability to maintain a high pace over three rounds remains untested.
Ultimately, Bukauskas' UFC experience and well-rounded skill set give him the edge. If he can avoid an early knockout, he should be able to outlast Cerqueira and secure a finish.
Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas wins via TKO (Round 3).