The opening bout of UFC 307 features a compelling matchup between Austin Hubbard and Alexander Hernandez, both of whom are looking to bounce back in the competitive lightweight division. This fight holds significant implications for each fighter’s career trajectory, as they aim to regain momentum after recent setbacks.

Austin Hubbard («Thud»)

• Age: 32
• Height: 5’10" / 177.8 cm
• Weight: 155 lbs / 70.31 kg
• Record: 16-7
• Association: Elevation Fight Team

Austin Hubbard is recognized for his grappling prowess and strong decision-making in fights, boasting a striking output that leans towards a strategic approach rather than all-out aggression. With 56% of his wins coming by decision, Hubbard excels at controlling the pace of the fight, though he does possess knockout power, evident with 5 KOs in his career. He most recently secured a unanimous decision victory over Michal Figlak at UFC on ESPN 55, showcasing his ability to go the distance effectively.

Austin Hubbard - Last 5 Fights

• Win vs. Michal Figlak - UFC on ESPN 55 (Apr 27, 2024) - Decision (Unanimous)
• Loss vs. Kurt Holobaugh - UFC 292 (Aug 19, 2023) - Submission (Triangle Choke)
• Win vs. Kegan Agnew - Caged Aggression 34 (Oct 14, 2022) - Decision (Unanimous)
• Win vs. Julian Lane - XMMA 5 (Jul 23, 2022) - Decision (Unanimous)
• Loss vs. Vinc Pichel - UFC on ESPN 29 (Aug 21, 2021) - Decision (Unanimous)

Alexander Hernandez («The Great Ape»)

• Age: 32
• Height: 5’9" / 175.26 cm
• Weight: 155 lbs / 70.31 kg
• Record: 14-8
• Association: Factory X

Alexander Hernandez is known for his explosive striking and aggressive fighting style, with 43% of his victories coming by KO/TKO. Despite facing challenges in recent matchups, including two consecutive losses, he remains a dangerous striker with the ability to finish fights quickly. Hernandez will be looking to utilize his quickness and striking variety against Hubbard, aiming to control the fight’s tempo early on.

Alexander Hernandez - Last 5 Fights

• Loss vs. Damon Jackson - UFC Fight Night 240 (Apr 6, 2024) - Decision (Split)
• Loss vs. Bill Algeo - UFC Fight Night 229 (Oct 7, 2023) - Decision (Unanimous)
• Win vs. Jim Miller - UFC Fight Night 219 (Feb 18, 2023) - Decision (Unanimous)
• Loss vs. Billy Quarantillo - UFC 282 (Dec 10, 2022) - TKO (Knees and Punches)
• Loss vs. Renato Carneiro - UFC 271 (Feb 12, 2022) - Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

Fight Breakdown

This matchup will likely hinge on Hubbard’s ability to implement his grappling strategy against Hernandez’s striking. If Hubbard can close the distance and engage in clinch work or takedowns, he may neutralize Hernandez’s striking game. On the other hand, if Hernandez can keep the fight standing, his speed and striking power could prove to be decisive.

Prediction

While both fighters bring unique strengths to the octagon, Austin Hubbard’s recent experience and grappling approach may give him the edge needed to outlast Alexander Hernandez. If Hubbard can avoid any early damage and impose his grappling game, he has a solid chance of securing a victory.

Prediction: Austin Hubbard by Decision.