Fili enters the bout with a 24-11 record, having competed in the UFC since 2013. Training out of Team Alpha Male, he boasts a well-rounded game, with 10 knockout wins and three submissions to his name. However, he has struggled with consistency, alternating wins and losses over his last several fights. Costa, at 21-7, has showcased his finishing abilities, with seven knockouts and seven submissions. The Brazilian fights out of Chute Boxe João Emilio, a camp known for producing aggressive strikers, and will likely look to pressure Fili early.
In recent performances, Fili secured a hard-fought split-decision win over Cub Swanson at UFC 303 in June 2024. Before that, he suffered a first-round knockout loss to Dan Ige at UFC Fight Night 236 in February. His last finish came in December 2023 when he stopped Lucas Almeida via TKO. Costa, on the other hand, is coming off a third-round submission win over Nuerdanbieke Shayilan in June 2024. Prior to that, he suffered a knockout loss to Steve Garcia in December 2023. He also picked up a unanimous decision victory over Austin Lingo in July 2023, proving his ability to go the distance.
For Fili, the key to victory is using his experience and striking versatility. He has the technical edge and must utilize his jab, movement, and wrestling if necessary to keep Costa from finding his rhythm. Costa, meanwhile, will look to pressure Fili early, using his power and submission skills to capitalize on any mistakes. If he can lure Fili into a brawl, he has a chance to land a fight-ending shot or find an opening on the ground.
Ultimately, Fili’s experience, technical striking, and durability give him the edge. Costa is dangerous, but Fili has faced higher-level competition and shown resilience. Expect Fili to weather the early storm and use his volume striking to secure a decision victory.
Prediction: Andre Fili wins via Unanimous Decision.
