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Mateusz Rębecki vs. Chris Duncan: UFC Vegas 108 Co-Main Event Preview & Prediction4 days ago
UFC

The co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park, taking place on August 2, 2025, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, features a high-stakes lightweight clash between Poland’s Mateusz Rębecki and Scotland’s Chris Duncan. Both fighters are on the cusp of the UFC’s top 15, and a win here could propel either into the lightweight division’s elite in a highly competitive weight class.

Mateusz Rębecki

Mateusz Rębecki (20-2) is a relentless grappler with a well-rounded skill set, known for his suffocating pressure, high takedown accuracy, and ability to control opponents on the ground. The 32-year-old Polish fighter, nicknamed "Rebeasti," has a 4-1 UFC record since joining in 2023 via Dana White’s Contender Series. His most recent fight at UFC 308 in October 2024 was a thrilling, bloody war against Myktybek Orolbai, earning a split-decision victory and a Fight of the Night bonus. Rębecki’s aggressive southpaw striking and elite wrestling (75% takedown accuracy) make him a formidable threat, though he can be vulnerable to strikers who keep him at range.

Mateusz Rębecki – Last 5 Fights:

1. Win vs. Myktybek Orolbai – Decision (Split) – UFC 308, October 26, 2024
2. Loss vs. Diego Ferreira – Decision (Unanimous) – UFC FN, May 11, 2024
3. Win vs. Roosevelt Roberts – Submission (Armbar) – UFC 295, November 11, 2023
4. Win vs. Loik Radzhabov – TKO (Punches) – UFC FN, June 24, 2023
5. Win vs. Nick Fiore – TKO (Punches) – UFC FN, January 14, 2023

Rębecki, unranked but just outside the top 20, aims to build on his momentum and break into the lightweight rankings with a statement win.

Chris Duncan

Chris Duncan (13-2) is a hard-hitting striker with a knack for seizing submission opportunities, particularly his trademark guillotine choke. The 32-year-old Scot, also a product of Dana White’s Contender Series, has a 4-1 UFC record since 2023, with back-to-back guillotine choke finishes in his last two fights. Training at American Top Team alongside Rębecki, Duncan combines heavy-handed striking with deceptive grappling, averaging 4.10 takedowns per 15 minutes. His resilience, forged through personal adversity and a background as a shepherd, makes him a dangerous underdog, though his 37% takedown defense could be a liability against a wrestler like Rębecki.

Chris Duncan – Last 5 Fights:

1. Win vs. Jordan Vucenic – Submission (Guillotine Choke) – UFC FN, March 22, 2025
2. Win vs. Bolaji Oki – Submission (Guillotine Choke) – UFC FN, September 28, 2024
3. Loss vs. Manuel Torres – Submission (Rear Naked Choke) – UFC FN, February 24, 2024
4. Win vs. Marcin Trzciński – Decision (Unanimous) – UFC FN, July 22, 2023
5. Win vs. Omar Morales – Decision (Split) – UFC 286, March 18, 2023

Duncan, unranked but riding momentum, looks to upset the odds and solidify his place in the lightweight division.

Fight Breakdown

Rębecki’s game plan will likely center on his wrestling, using his 75% takedown accuracy to drag Duncan to the mat, where he can control and chip away with ground-and-pound or hunt for submissions. His southpaw striking and relentless pressure allow him to close distance effectively, though he must avoid prolonged stand-up exchanges where Duncan’s power could shine.

Duncan, with a slight reach advantage (70 inches vs. Rębecki’s 66 inches), will aim to keep the fight standing, where his cleaner striking and knockout power give him an edge. His recent submission wins show he’s dangerous on the ground, particularly with guillotines, but his poor takedown defense (37%) could leave him vulnerable to Rębecki’s grappling. Duncan’s durability and ability to recover from early trouble, as seen in past fights, make him a threat if he survives Rębecki’s early onslaught.

Both fighters train at American Top Team, giving them insight into each other’s styles, though they’ve never sparred directly. Rębecki’s cardio and ability to avoid overtraining give him an edge in a grueling fight, while Duncan’s maturity and patience could help him capitalize on any mistakes.

Prediction

This co-main event pits Rębecki’s technical grappling and pressure against Duncan’s explosive striking and submission craft. Duncan’s power and guillotine threat make him dangerous early, especially if he keeps the fight standing or catches Rębecki in a scramble. However, Rębecki’s superior wrestling, takedown efficiency, and ability to dictate the fight’s location should allow him to control the pace on the ground.

Expect Duncan to land some heavy shots early, but Rębecki’s pressure and takedowns will wear him down as the fight progresses. Rębecki’s ability to avoid overtraining and maintain cardio should shine in the later rounds, where Duncan’s takedown defense may falter.

Prediction:
Mateusz Rębecki def. Chris Duncan via Decision (Unanimous) – Round 3

A gritty win for Rębecki could position him for a top-15 opponent next, while Duncan’s resilience keeps him in the lightweight conversation despite the loss.

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