UFC 321: Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista takes place on October 25, 2025, in Manchester, England. This featured bantamweight bout highlights a crucial matchup between Dagestan’s top-ranked contender Umar Nurmagomedov and surging Arizona native Mario Bautista, both vying to stay within reach of a title shot in one of the UFC’s most competitive divisions.
Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov (18–1) returns to the Octagon following the first loss of his professional career, a five-round decision defeat to Merab Dvalishvili for the bantamweight title. Before that, the Dagestani standout dominated every opponent with smothering wrestling, precise striking, and submission transitions reminiscent of his cousin Khabib. A former Combat Sambo world champion, Umar blends fluid distance control with seamless takedown entries, maintaining one of the highest control times in divisional history.
His résumé includes impressive wins over Cory Sandhagen, Raoni Barcelos, Nate Maness, and Brian Kelleher, all of which showcased his ability to mix styles. While the Dvalishvili bout revealed moments of vulnerability against nonstop pressure, Umar’s balance of composure, top control, and creative grappling remains elite. His ability to dictate tempo, manage distance, and smother opponents gives him an edge over nearly anyone in the division.
Umar Nurmagomedov – Last 5 Fights:
Win vs. Cory Sandhagen – Decision (Unanimous) – UFC ABC 7, August 3, 2024
Win vs. Bekzat Almakhan – Decision (Unanimous) – UFC FN 238, March 2, 2024
Win vs. Raoni Barcelos – KO (Body Kick/Punches) – UFC FN Strickland vs. Imavov, January 14, 2023
Win vs. Nate Maness – Decision (Unanimous) – UFC ESPN Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot, June 25, 2022
Loss vs. Merab Dvalishvili – Decision (Unanimous) – UFC 311, January 18, 2025
Nurmagomedov’s keys are to apply forward pressure, chain his takedowns efficiently, and control Bautista with heavy top game while maintaining composure through scrambles. His striking diversity—especially his jab and teep kicks—sets up his level changes and ground dominance.
Mario Bautista
Mario Bautista (16–2) has quietly become one of the division’s most complete and consistent performers, entering this bout on an impressive eight-fight win streak. Representing The MMA Lab under John Crouch, Bautista has developed a well-rounded arsenal that combines clean boxing, fluid takedowns, and opportunistic submissions. His ability to blend striking with grappling transitions has earned him victories over Patchy Mix, José Aldo, Ricky Simón, and Da’Mon Blackshear.
Bautista thrives on pace, durability, and versatility. His composure under fire and adaptability mid-fight have allowed him to beat a wide range of styles—from veterans to athletic wrestlers. Known for his cardio and creativity, he’s dangerous in scrambles, with multiple submission wins including rear-naked chokes and triangle finishes.
Mario Bautista – Last 5 Fights:
Win vs. Patchy Mix – Decision (Unanimous) – UFC 316, June 7, 2025
Win vs. José Aldo – Decision (Split) – UFC 307, October 5, 2024
Win vs. Ricky Simón – Decision (Unanimous) – UFC FN Ankalaev vs. Walker 2, January 13, 2024
Win vs. Da’Mon Blackshear – Decision (Unanimous) – UFC 292, August 19, 2023
Win vs. Guido Cannetti – Submission (RNC) – UFC FN Yan vs. Dvalishvili, March 11, 2023
Bautista’s strengths lie in his volume, scrambling ability, and unpredictability. If he can stay upright and maintain a high pace, he can test Nurmagomedov’s defensive layers and conditioning. His goal will be to force scrambles, attack transitions, and capitalize on openings when Umar commits to takedowns.
Fight Breakdown:
This bout represents the classic clash between dominant control and dynamic activity. Nurmagomedov will seek to dictate the fight through pressure, top control, and positional dominance. Bautista, on the other hand, thrives in chaos, using his fluid movement, sharp hands, and opportunistic grappling to disrupt rhythm and steal rounds with volume.
If Umar controls the pace early, he can suffocate Bautista and secure long stretches of control time. However, if Bautista scrambles effectively and forces Umar into prolonged stand-up exchanges, his sharper combinations and pace could tilt the momentum his way.
Both fighters are durable, technical, and disciplined—making this a tactical chess match rather than a brawl. Nurmagomedov’s ability to mix striking and grappling at a high level gives him the narrower path to victory over five rounds.
Prediction:
The stylistic matchup slightly favors Nurmagomedov. His wrestling foundation, control-heavy top game, and improved distance striking should help neutralize Bautista’s rhythm and scramble game. Expect a disciplined performance from Umar, with steady pressure and positional dominance throughout.
Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov def. Mario Bautista via Decision (Unanimous)
A win reestablishes Nurmagomedov as a top contender ready for another title run, while a Bautista upset would cement his rise as one of the most dangerous dark horses at 135 pounds.