The upcoming heavyweight clash between #4-ranked Sergei Pavlovich and #9-ranked Jairzinho Rozenstruik at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov promises to be an explosive battle. Both fighters are known for their devastating knockout power, with Pavlovich securing 15 of his 18 wins via KO/TKO and Rozenstruik finishing 13 of his 15 victories in similar fashion. This fight could be a make-or-break moment for Pavlovich, who is coming off two consecutive losses, while Rozenstruik looks to extend his momentum after two recent victories.

Fighter Breakdown

Sergei Pavlovich is a relentless pressure fighter with powerful boxing and an impressive 84-inch reach, making him one of the most dangerous strikers in the division. His aggressive style has earned him six first-round finishes in the UFC, including wins over Curtis Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa, and Derrick Lewis. However, his recent losses to Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov have exposed some defensive vulnerabilities, particularly against high-level strikers and well-rounded opponents. If he can reassert his dominance early, he has a strong chance of overwhelming Rozenstruik.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik, on the other hand, is a patient counter-striker with an elite kickboxing background. He has shown the ability to capitalize on opponents' mistakes, as seen in his last-second KO of Alistair Overeem and his quick finishes of Andrei Arlovski and Chris Daukaus. While his striking power is unquestionable, Rozenstruik has struggled against pressure-heavy fighters, as evidenced by his losses to Curtis Blaydes, Ciryl Gane, and Alexander Volkov. However, his recent victories over Tai Tuivasa and Shamil Gaziev have shown improvements in his durability and ability to adjust his game plan.

Last Five Fights

📌 Sergei Pavlovich (3-2 in last five)

* ❌ Loss – Alexander Volkov (Decision) – June 22, 2024
* ❌ Loss – Tom Aspinall (KO) – November 11, 2023
* ✅ Win – Curtis Blaydes (TKO) – April 22, 2023
* ✅ Win – Tai Tuivasa (KO) – December 3, 2022
* ✅ Win – Derrick Lewis (TKO) – July 30, 2022

📌 Jairzinho Rozenstruik (3-2 in last five)

* ✅ Win – Tai Tuivasa (Decision) – August 18, 2024
* ✅ Win – Shamil Gaziev (TKO) – March 2, 2024
* ❌ Loss – Jailton Almeida (Submission) – May 13, 2023
* ✅ Win – Chris Daukaus (KO) – December 10, 2022
* ❌ Loss – Alexander Volkov (TKO) – June 4, 2022

Prediction

This fight is likely to be decided in the opening rounds. Pavlovich thrives when he can dictate the pace and apply pressure, whereas Rozenstruik is at his best when he can counter an over-aggressive opponent. If Pavlovich can close the distance early and unleash his heavy hands, he could secure a first or second-round TKO victory. However, if Rozenstruik weathers the storm and finds an opening, he has the power to deliver a late knockout or edge out a decision.

🔹 Most Likely Outcome: Sergei Pavlovich via TKO (Round 1 or 2)
🔹 Alternate Scenario: Rozenstruik wins via late KO or decision

Ultimately, Pavlovich's relentless pressure and knockout power make him the favorite, but Rozenstruik's patience and counter-striking could turn the tide if the fight extends past the early rounds. Expect fireworks in this high-stakes heavyweight showdown.